June 2020 Economic and Financial Review

June 2020 Economic and Financial Review

MONTSERRAT

The contraction in the hotels and restaurants

The deflationary pressures were largely

sector is estimated to have negatively

attributed to a decline in the prices for

impacted a number of related sectors

housing, water, electricity, gas and other

including

transport,

storage

and

fuels (2.0 per cent), transport (1.0 per cent),

communications; wholesale and retail; and

and miscellaneous goods and services

real estate, renting and business activities.

(1.0 per cent). The overall decline in prices

Value added in other important sectors is

was tempered by increases of 2.2 per cent

also estimated to have fallen, including

and 0.3 per cent in the cost of health services

construction,

manufacturing

and

and food and non-alcoholic beverages,

agriculture, all attributable to the depressed

respectively.

state of the economy, as the COVID-19

pandemic resulted in an economic lockdown

Fiscal Developments

over the second quarter of 2020. In respect

The government recorded an overall

of private sector construction activity,

deficit of $20.4m in the first half of 2020,

preliminary data show that the value of

compared with one of $15.3m in the

construction starts fell by 79.4 per cent,

comparable period of 2019. This

while the number of construction starts

development was due mainly to an

declined by 64.0 per cent.

increase in capital expenditure over the

period.

The consumer price index fell by

Developments on the government’s current

1.1 per cent in the first half of 2020,

operations reflect a 3.2 per cent widening of

following a 0.5 per cent contraction in the

the current account deficit to $8.4m.

corresponding

period

of

2019.

Montserrat Public Finance

Montserrat Consumer Price Index Percentage Change

EC$M

40.0

%

30.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0

20.0

10.0

0.0

-4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0

-10.0

-20.0

-30.0

18 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 19 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 20 Q1 20 Q2

18 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 19 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 20 Q1 20 Q2

All Items Food & Non-Alchoholic Beverages Energy

Note: Energy includes Housing, Utilities, Gas & Fuels

Recurrent Revenue Recurrent Expenditure Current Account Balance

35