June 2020 Economic and Financial Review

June 2020 Economic and Financial Review

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA

of 2020, relative to the comparative period

External Sector Developments

of 2019.

Antigua and Barbuda Visible Trade

EC$M

800.0

600.0

Outlook

400.0

200.0

Economic activity in Antigua and

0.0

Barbuda is expected to contract markedly

-200.0

-400.0

in 2020, driven by the continuing impact

-600.0

18 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 19 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 20 Q1 20 Q2

of the pandemic. Internationally, the global

Total Exports

Total Imports

Trade Balance

economy is expected to enter into recession

The merchandise trade deficit narrowed

this year, with the associated impact on

by 28.0 per cent to $646.6m in the first six

Antigua and Barbuda’s major source

months of 2020, primarily associated with a

markets, including the USA and Europe.

decline of 26.8 per cent in the value of

Although travel and tourism have gradually

imports. This outturn was influenced by

resumed and some of the containment

significantly lower payments in all

measures have been lifted, the hotels and

categories of imports, with the largest

restaurants sector may continue to be

declines emanating from mineral fuels and

challenged by a resurgence in COVID-19

related materials (29.3 per cent) and

cases and the continuing physical distance

machinery, transport equipment (27.8 per

protocols.

cent). The decline in import payments was

partly offset by a 3.7 per cent falloff in the

Domestic conditions are therefore expected

to be challenging. While the implementation

value of exports, largely driven by a

contraction in the value of re-exports of

of capital projects such as the new cruise

machinery and transport equipment.

pier and the St John’s port redevelopment

project is expected to continue and may help

Consistent with the sharp decline in total

visitor arrivals, generated by global travel

support growth, their impact is likely to be

restrictions, gross travel receipts contracted

limited. Weak labour market conditions are

likely to constrain consumer spending, while

by 45.4 per cent to $592.7m in the first half

fiscal constraints may limit government’s

to a loan repayment deferral programme in March 2020 for an initial period of six months

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