June 2020 Economic and Financial Review

June 2020 Economic and Financial Review DOMESTIC EONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

and the limitations to intra-regional

Outlook

travel given developments with

The outlook for the remainder of 2020 is

LIAT – the major regional airline.

likely to remain subdued, despite the

gradual reopening of economies

4. Given the great degree of

regionally and globally.

uncertainties

surrounding

the

1. The global economy is estimated to

outlook, short term risks remain

experience a recession in 2020, as

titled to the downside.

the International Monetary Fund

(IMF) projects that global output will

5. These risks include the possibility of

contract by 4.4 per cent.

a resurgence of infections, as borders

re-open and experts do not anticipate

2. The ECCU countries, which rely

the deployment of a vaccine before

heavily on travel services may be

2021

disproportionately affected, as the

economies of all major source

6. The perennial threat of natural

markets are projected to contract. In

disasters persists, particularly from

Box 1 below, the ECCB estimates

the prediction of an above-normal

that the region’s tourism industry is

Atlantic season for 2020

not likely to recover before 2023.

7. On the flip side, the ECCU

3. New challenges to the resumption of

economies are likely to benefit from

tourism activity include the

the decline in international oil prices.

enforcement of covid-19 protocols

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