Economic and Financial Review - June 2019

June 2019 Economic and Financial Review MONTSERRAT

number of stay-over visitors, excursionists and yacht passengers are also anticipated. Positive developments in the tourism industry are expected to spill over into auxiliary sectors, such as wholesale and retail trade and transport, storage and communications, which will further boost overall economic growth. The fiscal situation is likely to improve, supported by efficiencies in grant aid flows for the remainder of the year. Revenue collection in the latter half of 2019 should be augmented by the anticipated improvements in tax collection and compliance as well as continued enforcement of tax laws. Notwithstanding the improvement on the

revenue side, the implementation of several capital projects is expected to drive up expenditure, but not sufficient to offset revenue gains. Montserrat’s economic performance is contingent, inter alia, on the availability and timeliness of grant funding, developments in the global macro-economic environment and access to the island. Major downside risks to this forecast include the outcome of the Brexit negotiations, on-going geopolitical tensions, limited air access, disruptions in grant flows, heightened threat of volcanic eruptions and the adverse impact of global warming and climate change, particularly an active hurricane season.

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Eastern Caribbean Central Bank