Economic and Financial Review - June 2019

June 2019 Economic and Financial Review ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA

greater momentum in the second half of 2019. This outlook is based on a projected expansion in the tourism and related services and the construction sector, as well as the much-anticipated opening of the UWI Five Islands campus. These sectors are expected to continue to drive growth and boost the performance of the other auxiliary service sectors. Within the tourism sector, the stay-over market segment will remain buoyant, fuelled by the recent opening of major hotel plants, a number of sporting activities as well as innovative marketing and promotion initiatives by the Tourism Authority. Meanwhile, activity in cruise tourism is likely to remain at a respectable level, in light of increased marketing and investments by Global Ports. The construction sector is expected to benefit from projects undertaken by both the private and public sectors. In the public sector, capital projects are expected to accelerate, driven by the recommencement of works on the Friars Hill road rehabilitation and expansion project, government’s housing projects, including Booby Alley redevelopment, Denfield’s and Paynter’s. The sector is also expected to be bolstered by continued reconstruction of public infrastructure and

Antigua and Barbuda Visible Trade

600.0 EC$M

400.0

200.0

0.0

-200.0

-400.0

-600.0

17 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 18 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 19 Q1 19 Q2

Total Imports

Total Exports

Trade Balance

Gross travel receipts are estimated to have risen by 12.9 per cent to $1,138.4m in the first six months of the year, consistent with the robust growth in stay-over visitor arrivals. Commercial banks’ transactions resulted in a net outflow of $118.2m, compared with an outflow of $219.1m in the first half of 2018. The movement was largely linked to an accumulation in assets by commercial banks outside of the region. In the public sector, external loan disbursements to the central government rose by $23.1m to $113.7m during the period, while external principal payments grew by $15.8m to $112.4m. The overall impact was a net disbursements position of $1.3m in contrast to a net amortisation position of $6.0m in the comparable period of 2018.

Outlook Economic growth in the Antigua and Barbuda economy is forecasted to gain

38

Eastern Caribbean Central Bank