Economic and Financial Review - June 2019

June 2019 Economic and Financial Review ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA

work related to the Hodges Bay Resort and Spa and the Royalton Antigua Hotel.

medical care and expenses (1.7 per cent) and miscellaneous (1.4 per cent).

Antigua and Barbuda Consumer Price Index Percentage Change

%

Based on the preliminary data, economic activity is also provisionally estimated to have decelerated in the ancillary sectors that support tourism and construction activity namely wholesale and retail trade; real estate, and transport, storage and communications, evidenced by declines in the value of imports for food and beverages, fuels and miscellaneous manufactured articles. Conversely, financial intermediation was estimated to have recorded positive growth, partially influenced by the expansion in banking sector credit and deposits. Inflationary pressures subsided in the first half of 2019, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on an end- of-period basis. The index rose by 1.0 per cent over the six-month period ending June 2019, compared with a 1.4 per cent increase during same period of 2018. The rise in the index was fairly broad-based, including expansions in the three most heavily- weighted sub-indices comprising food (1.8 per cent), transport and communication (0.5 per cent) and housing (0.1 per cent). These advances were mitigated by declines in

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

-1.5 -1.0 -0.5

17 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 18 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 19 Q1 19 Q2

All Items Food Energy

Note: Energy includes fuel and light

Fiscal and Debt Developments Provisional fiscal data for the first half of 2019 indicated that the overall deficit of the central government widened to $62.1m, following one of $48.5m at the end of June 2018. The primary balance, which excludes debt interest payments, moved to a deficit of $12.5m from a surplus of $5.3m at the end of June 2018. These fiscal outturns were mainly due to an expansion in current expenditure, which was only partly mitigated by a rebound in non-tax revenue, specifically receipts from the Citizenship by Investment Programme. The current account maintained a deficit position in the first half of 2019, widening to $31.0m from $11.8m in the corresponding period of the previous year. This outcome was largely influenced by

32

Eastern Caribbean Central Bank