Economic and Financial Review - June 2019

June 2019 Economic and Financial Review ANGUILLA

projects, including work on seven schools and the Princess Alexandra Hospital. Data for the first half of 2019 indicate that Anguilla recorded the largest number of stayover visitors over the comparable six- month period in its history and is on track to record its best year yet in 2019. One of the key downside risks to growth is the further escalation of trade tensions between the USA and China. In addition, uncertainty associated with Brexit continue to weigh on the global economy and could potentially dampen demand for Anguilla’s tourism services from this source market. Moreover, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could escalate and threaten to exert upward pressure on global oil prices, thus increasing the country’s rate of inflation. Real Sector Developments Activity in the hotels and restaurants sector, a proxy for the tourism industry, is estimated to have expanded in the first half of 2019, compared with the corresponding period of 2018. The improved performance was driven by a more than doubling of total visitor arrivals to 95,371, following the depressed tourism season in the first half of 2018, owing to the effects of hurricane Irma. Expansions were recorded in the two key

categories of visitors, with the number of stayover visitors more than doubling to 56,639, accompanied by an increase of 24,911 in the number of excursionists to 38,732 from a year ago. Leading the increase in stayover visitor arrivals were the key source markets of the USA, Canada, and the UK. Together, these three markets accounted for 79.2 per cent of total visitors. Additionally, there was an increase of 14.8 per cent (733) from the Caribbean source market. Arrivals from the rest of Europe also more than doubled to 2,795. Similar to stayover arrivals, the number of excursionists more than doubled (24,911), directly attributable to the resumption of cruise ship calls to St Maarten, the primary gateway for Anguilla.

Anguilla Visitor Arrivals

Thousands

10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0

0.0 5.0

17 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 18 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 19 Q1 19 Q2

Stay-overs

Excursionists

Note: yacht data not available for Anguilla

The level of construction activity in the first half of 2019 is estimated to have moderated compared with the outturn in the corresponding period of 2018. Despite

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Eastern Caribbean Central Bank