ECCB Working Paper - What is Driving Toursim Flows to the ECCU

Figure 1 Growth of Stayover Arrivals 2000-2016 (% change)

40.0

0.9

30.0

VCT

0.7

2.1

20.0

LCA

1.7

2.9

10.0

KNA

3.9

(3.7)

0.0

MON

(0.1)

(10.0)

0.2

GRD

1.0

(20.0)

3.2

DMA

0.7

(30.0)

2.0

ATG

1.1

(40.0)

6.6

AIA

4.2

(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

2001

2002 AIA

2003

2004

2005

2006 ATG

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

DMA

GRD

Median Mean

MON

KNA

LCA

VCT

Sources: ECCB, Authors ’ calculations

Looking at the differentials between the two measures of central tendency above, the observation is

one of volatility. Arrivals growth in the countries are highly susceptible to shocks whether they

emanate from the source market or the destination. They could also be related, inter alia, to changes

in economic circumstances, behavioural deviations, and competition.

From a region-wide (the Americas) point of view, the ECCU has lost its importance as a major tourist

port as a larger share of the tourists visit North, South and Central America. In 2016, about

25.0 million people visited the Caribbean; the Eastern Caribbean captured 4.3 per cent of this

Caribbean market. This represents a decline from levels such as 5.6 per cent in 1995 and 4.8 per cent

in 2010. Moreover, the UNWTO is projecting that by 2030 the Caribbean region will only have a 1.7 per cent share of the global market, down from its current 2.0 per cent. 6 Nonetheless, tourism

remains one of the main drivers of economic development in these small island states.

Looking specifically at the origin countries for tourists, we observe that the main source markets for

arrivals have not evolved significantly overtime (see Figure 2). The distribution captured in 2000 has

essentially prevailed to present day.

6 This could be a reflection of increased travel in regions like Asia and the Pacific. Especially as their inhabitants, continue to ascend through income segments.

4